Is Australia’s ‘voracious’ illicit drug use behind organised crime violence? It’s complicated

Sydney is currently experiencing an increase in organised crime violence, including the recent murders of two men who were mistaken for members of the underworld. Australian Federal Police Commissioner Krissy Barrett has called for a conversation about the link between drug use and organised crime in Australia. However, the relationship between illicit drug use and organised crime is complex and not fully understood.

Measuring drug use in Australia is challenging, as there is no single definitive measure. Police data show a moderate decrease in overall drug use and possession offences, but specific drugs have seen varying trends. Ecstasy use has dropped by 74%, while cannabis use has decreased by 27%. However, amphetamine-related offences have increased by 14%.

Overall, about 17.9% of Australians have used an illicit drug in the past 12 months, up from 12% in 2019, with the rise driven largely by hallucinogens such as psilocybin mushrooms. Stronger ties to organised crime groups, such as cocaine, heroin, and methamphetamine, have shown no significant increase in use.

Methamphetamine consumption has reached a ten-year high, while cocaine use has also risen by 21%. Wastewater monitoring programs provide further insights, but they measure volume, not people, and cannot determine the number of users or their frequency or purity of use. The available data present a more complicated picture than Barrett suggests, and the escalation of organised crime violence could be due to various factors, including the cost-of-living crisis, global instability, and the recruitment of young people into criminal networks.