Inflation, growth, and exchange rate. How does the 2027 budget compare to last year?

The 2027 budget highlights optimistic economic projections compared to last year, particularly in inflation, exchange rate, and economic growth. Government officials estimate that inflation will reach 29% by the end of 2027, significantly higher than the 21.3% recorded from January to August of this year and their initial 10.1% projection for 2026.

Exchange rate expectations have shifted as well, with the Argentine peso now projected to strengthen to around AR$1,600 by year-end, up from the initial AR$1,423 forecast and the current AR$1,513 level. Economic growth, however, remains a major concern, with the government now projecting only 3% growth for the year, down from the initial 5% forecast and the 2.1% estimate by market analysts.

This reduced growth expectation is notably lower than the 2.1% anticipated by the Market Expectations Survey. The 2027 budget also faces challenges in delivering on its fiscal goals, with the primary surplus projected to be 1.3% of GDP, slightly below the 1.5% surplus estimated for 2025 and the 1.4% target set with the International Monetary Fund.

These discrepancies in projections raise questions about the accuracy of the assumptions employed by the current administration in forecasting next year's economic outcomes, especially as presidential elections approach in November 2027.