Indian Rupee hits 3-month low as Brent crude surges and US bond yields breach 5%

On Tuesday, the Indian rupee reached its weakest point in nearly three months, closing at 95.95 against the US dollar. This marked a decline from its previous close of 95.55, as reported by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The RBI's selling of dollars at lower levels contributed to the currency's weakness, according to traders. The rupee faced renewed pressure following a surge in both domestic and global bond yields.

Brent crude oil prices remained elevated above $108 per barrel, which increased India's demand for dollars to import crude oil. The rupee traded within a narrow range of 95.96 to 95.75, while dollar demand from oil companies continued to exert pressure on the currency. Market traders are now closely monitoring whether the RBI will maintain its support for the currency near the 95.59-96 levels.

If the rupee consistently moves above 96 per dollar, it could potentially trade within the 96.10-96.20 range. Financial experts forecast that the USD/INR exchange rate could reach 95.50 by December 2026 and 96.50 by June 2027, indicating a gradual depreciation of the rupee and a modest underperformance against other Asian currencies.

The focus of market participants is now on oil prices, which will likely determine the future trajectory of the Indian rupee. Additionally, traders are closely watching the US Federal Reserve's policy decision on Wednesday, with markets pricing a 93% chance of a rate hike according to the CME's FedWatch Tool.