How super El Nino will put farmers, families and livelihoods under pressure, from Bali to Bangkok

The chance of a "very strong" El Nino from next month to December is forecast to be 98 per cent. El Nino, a climate phenomenon that occurs every two to seven years, typically lasts around nine to 12 months. It is characterized by warm surface water and changes in rainfall patterns across the Pacific, including Southeast Asia. Farmers in Bali, Indonesia, are already experiencing the effects of this event.

Wayan Suwarbawa, a seaweed farmer, lost nearly 10 million rupiah (US$570) after his crop bleached and detached due to intense heat. The farmer on Nusa Lembongan estimates the damaged crop could not be reused for seedlings. The region is bracing for more severe consequences due to the potential development of a "super" El Nino, where the warming in the Pacific is intense and unusually widespread.

This year's El Nino event may develop into such a super event, according to some experts, who have dubbed it a "Godzilla" El Nino. The Climate Prediction Center of the United States' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has raised the probability of a severe El Nino to 75 per cent. The impact of a super El Nino could extend beyond agriculture, as it can weaken monsoon winds and threaten hydropower generation, affecting daily life and livelihoods in the region.

This could lead to disruptions in energy supply chains and increased food prices, further impacting consumers' expenses.