How a ‘super’ El Niño could impact weather in Canada in the coming months
CityNews chief meteorologist Natasha Ramsahai explains how El Niño conditions could impact Canada this winter and heading into the spring.
Canada may face an intense El Niño weather pattern, potentially the strongest on record, according to CityNews meteorologist Natasha Ramsahai. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast predicts a rapid transition into this "super" El Niño, which could manifest across western Canada, the Prairies, and northwestern Ontario, bringing warmer and drier conditions throughout the winter into spring and summer of 2027.
El Niño is a climate cycle that alternates with La Niña every two to seven years, characterized by warmer-than-normal Pacific Ocean temperatures. These warmer waters can extend westward during El Niño events, affecting global temperature and precipitation patterns. Ramsahai emphasized that the strength of an El Niño event is determined by the temperature of the hot water pool, which currently exceeds 2 C above average.
The forecast suggests a greater-than-90-percent chance of a "historic" El Niño event lasting through March to May 2027. This could lead to reduced snow packs, increased wildfire and drought risks, and impacts such as little snow in affected areas, shorter ski seasons, and potential negative effects on maple syrup and ice wine production. In southern Ontario, El Niño may bring increased freezing rain and flooding risks, while northwestern Ontario, Quebec, and most of the Maritimes could experience cooler conditions.
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