Hong Kong follows US Fed with first rate hike in over three years

Hong Kong's Monetary Authority (HKMA) has raised its key interest rate for the first time since 2023, matching the move by the US Federal Reserve. The HKMA increased its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.25 percent, according to a statement released on September 17. The city's de facto central bank aligns its actions with the Fed to maintain the local Hong Kong dollar's peg to the US dollar.

Now, the focus shifts to the potential changes in lending rates announced by major local banks, including HSBC Holdings and Standard Chartered. These banks' best lending rates serve as a benchmark for mortgages, allowing financial institutions to encourage borrowing despite tightening conditions. The one-month Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate, a crucial mortgage reference rate, has risen to 2.95 percent, the highest in nearly three months, but remains significantly lower than its US counterpart.

The US rate hikes are prompting traders to continue buying the US dollar against the Hong Kong dollar, generating a profit from the interest rate differential. The Hong Kong dollar is currently trading near its weakest level permitted under the city's pegged exchange rate system, last observed over a year ago. While Hong Kong's economy is thriving due to robust trade, the tightening credit conditions pose a risk to the property market that recently emerged from a long downturn, particularly as buyers become more cautious about China's efforts to curb mainland capital outflows.

Property prices in Hong Kong are projected to rebound to levels not seen in nearly a decade in 2026, fueled by strong Chinese demand, limited supply, and robust rental growth, as per Bloomberg Intelligence.