El Ibex tantea otra tregua antes de la Fed

The Ibex market anticipates another tactical pause before the Federal Reserve meeting.

Investors are opening doors for a short-term market lull in advance of the US Federal Reserve's decision. References to artificial intelligence (AI) and oil are fueling this mini-truce, which began yesterday with a flat closing on the Ibex. European markets will close without hearing the outcome of the highly anticipated Federal Reserve meeting.

The expectation is justified, as the Fed could resume interest rate increases if the market's forecasts hold true. Rising inflation due to the war in Iran may force the Federal Reserve to take a stance contrary to Donald Trump's proposals.

The meeting will carry even greater weight. Analysts will focus not only on the final decision on interest rates, but also on the tone the Fed conveys and the review of the macroeconomic picture. These developments aim to clear some of the latent uncertainties about the Fed's possible future monetary moves.

Fixed income has been gradually counting an increasingly hardening monetary policy. Soaring debt interest rates have become one of the main stock market threats. The 10-year US Treasury yield is hovering near 5% before the Fed. In Europe, the German Bund is firmly above 3.50%, and the Spanish bond barely moves from the 4% level that has prevailed since the beginning of the week.

One of the greatest sources of inflationary tension, oil, is moderating at least the pace of its climb. All related to energy has become the top target of the latest attacks recorded in the Middle East, and peace negotiations are currently on hold. Brent crude oil stabilizes its latest gains and stalls at around $108 a barrel. Wall Street also puts the brakes on, this time on the declines suffered since the start of the session.

With the Federal Reserve behind it, futures open the door to a timid rebound, taking advantage of the mini-truce in oil and the sectors most linked to artificial intelligence.