El Ibex 35 rinde más por dividendos que el bono español a 10 años

While the Spanish government debt yield experiences a significant surge, offering investors returns unseen in a decade, the Ibex 35 manages to earn more through dividends than the 10-year Spanish bond, thanks to aggressive shareholder remuneration policies by banks and energy companies. The Spanish benchmark index trades at a dividend yield of 4.45%, compared to the 4% interest offered by the Spanish 10-year bond.

Analysts estimate that the dividend yield of the Ibex 35 could reach 4.95% within 12 months. Experts emphasize that the profitability of Spanish sovereign bonds will continue to rise as long as inflation growth persists, driven by higher energy prices. This has led central banks to be forced to raise interest rates more often than expected before the outbreak of the war in the Middle East.

The Spanish 10-year bond last touched 4% in the last quarter of 2023, and this level of return has not been consistently strong since late 2013. Across the rest of European and US sovereign bonds, the trend is similar. The dividends of the Ibex 35 provide investors with additional protection against inflation, according to experts.

The Spanish CPI surged to 4.3% in August, the highest in three and a half years, due to the increase in gasoline prices. The banking and energy sectors' power in dividend payouts gives stability to the Ibex 35, according to experts. The strength shown in the accounts of the first six months of the year and the objectives set by companies in both sectors translate into historic shareholder remuneration policies and generate solid dividend yield estimates by the market consensus.

The average dividend yield of Spanish banks is 5.22% and could reach 6.23% in a year. Meanwhile, energy companies now yield collectively 7.5% and could reach 7.79% over the next 12 months. The latest Janus Henderson report shows that Inditex occupies the 19th position among Europe's largest payers of dividends and 38th globally.

Following close behind are Banco Sabadell and CaixaBank, alongside Santander, Telefónica, Ferrovial, and Mapfre. Nonetheless, Spanish companies have distributed nearly 34 billion euros in dividends between January and July, according to data from Spain's Stock Exchange. More than 14 Ibex 35 stocks earn more in dividends than the index, with five of these stocks - Banco Sabadell, Unicaja, Colonial, Naturgy, and Enagás - exceeding 6% in dividend profitability.

Notably, the Catalan entity CaixaBank stands out with a projected dividend yield of 12.3% for this year, one of the highest in Europe, thanks to an extraordinary dividend derived from the sale of its British subsidiary, TSB, to Banco Santander. CaixaBank, Bankinter, and BBVA also rank among the stocks that surpass the index's dividend yield.

In the energy sector, Naturgy, Enagás, Redeia, and Endesa stand out. Italy shines with dividends compared to its bonds. The Italian 10-year bond yield of 4.4% is now at November 2023 levels, while its leading stock market index, the FTSE Mib, yields 4.63% in dividends, the highest in Europe over a 12-month period. The other two eurozone index references, the CAC 40 French and the DAX German, cannot match this performance.

The French CAC 40 trades at a dividend yield of 1.78%, compared to its sovereign bond yield of 4.5% at 10-year, which has been high since 2008. The German bond at the same horizon is at 3.53%, a return level not seen since 2011, while the DAX yields 1.83% in dividends. The US stock market does not perform well in this comparison.

Its 10-year national bond, the main reference for the market, has risen to 5%, a rate unseen since 2007. Meanwhile, the dividend yield of the S&P 500 is estimated at 1.17%, though it is expected to improve to 1.24%, although strong share repurchases are a significant factor.