Eight rules to help you understand what campaign finance reporting reveals about influence and support – or doesn’t

Understanding campaign finance reporting can be confusing for the average person. News stories about campaign finance are common during election seasons, and the amount of money involved can be overwhelming. For instance, in Ohio's U.S. Senate race, over $130 million in outside spending was reported. However, comprehending what this money represents and its impact on elections can be challenging.

Campaign finance laws and practices have evolved significantly in recent years. Outside groups, such as Super PACs or "dark money" organizations, have become increasingly influential, spending millions of dollars in a short period. These groups can quickly raise and spend large sums of money, putting pressure on candidates to raise more funds to remain competitive.

Despite the complexities of campaign finance, there are some basic rules that anyone can use to understand information about money in elections. Here are six key rules:

1. Campaign expenses keep increasing: The cost of running a campaign has grown faster than inflation. In the 2024 congressional elections, $9.5 billion was spent, compared to $8.8 billion in 2020. However, when adjusted for inflation, overall spending has nearly doubled since 2014.

2. Smart donors support viable candidates: Candidates with the most money tend to win over 90% of the time. Incumbents, who are almost certain to win, attract significant donations, but donors are more likely to give to candidates who have a realistic chance of winning.

3. Money is essential, but unnecessary expense is counterproductive: In highly competitive races, candidates who raise the most money often need it the most. When both candidates raise substantial funds, the amount raised becomes less important than in less competitive races.

4. Home state donors matter more: Contributions from people within the candidate's home state are significant because those individuals are more likely to vote for the candidate. Donations from out-of-state interest groups, while helpful, do not necessarily translate into voting support.

5. Small donations from various locations indicate unique appeal: Candidates who receive many small donations, often from out-of-state supporters, suggest a unique appeal. These donors are typically more ideologically extreme and may be mobilized through online communications.

6. Super PACs can spend quickly, but cannot influence candidates directly: Super PACs can spend large sums of money on campaign ads and advocacy but are restricted from directly supporting or opposing candidates. While Super PAC support can indicate a candidate's viability, it does not necessarily translate into direct influence over the candidate's decisions or actions.