ECB’s wage tracker points to modest uptick in negotiated pay growth

The European Central Bank's wage tracker indicates a modest 2.7% increase in negotiated wages for the first half of 2027, up slightly from the previous quarter. This figure includes smoothed one-off payments, which have a diminishing impact over time. The tracker, which covers 32.5% of employees in participating countries, suggests that one-off payments accounted for 2.2% of wage growth in 2026.

Smoother wage pressures stand at 2.2%, while the full figure remains at 2.7%. The tracker is more suited to describing short-term wage trends, while the unsmoothed version is better for annual trends. Employee coverage remains steady at around 46.9% for the year. The tracker is subject to revision and should not be considered a forecast. For a more complete picture of wage trends, consult the ECB's macroeconomic projections.