Decepcionar al mercado o enfurecer a Trump: el dilema de Warsh en su primera gran decisión al frente de la Fed

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh faces a challenging situation as he prepares to make his case at Wednesday's policy decision. If Warsh refrains from raising interest rates, markets may react negatively, while pushing for a hike could lead to retribution from the White House. The Federal Open Market Committee has placed itself in a difficult position, with inflation persistently above the target, oil prices hovering above $100 per barrel, and traders pricing a 93% chance of a rate hike. However, the path of U.S. interest rates into the following year remains uncertain.

President Trump has been vocal in his preference for lower borrowing costs, even threatening to sever trade ties with surplus countries if the Fed fails to lower rates. The market has experienced some relief as the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has decreased after briefly surpassing the 5% threshold. Additionally, oil prices have softened following a surge in U.S. crude inventories, with Brent crude falling 0.9% to $107.82 a barrel.

Despite these developments, investor confidence remains fragile due to other central banks, such as the Bank of Japan, tightening policy this week. Market sentiment showed tentative optimism, with stocks managing a cautious rebound following a series of fluctuations. The MSCI's Asia-Pacific index outside Japan rose by 0.6%, the Nikkei 225 increased by 0.4%, and the U.S. S&P 500 futures climbed by 0.2%.

The positive sentiment continued into Europe, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures, German DAX futures, and FTSE futures all gaining 0.3% in early trading.

However, the market's mood took a hit as digital assets continued their downward trend following the U.S. Senate's rejection of comprehensive cryptocurrency legislation backed by Trump. Bitcoin dropped 0.1% to $75,816.24, while ether declined by 0.2% to $2,403.27.

Several key developments are expected to impact markets on Wednesday, including industrial production figures for July and labor costs for the second quarter in the Euro Zone.