Commentary: Why is UMNO calling for an 'immediate' GE? Look at the maths

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim faces a strategic decision regarding the timing of the next general election. His deputy, Deputy Prime Minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, has called for GE16 to be held immediately, asserting that it is the time to "reclaim the mandate to lead". This comes after two state polls in the peninsula - Johor and Negeri Sembilan - bolstered Zahid's confidence in UMNO's electoral prospects.

The UMNO-led coalition Barisan Nasional (BN) performed impressively in these states, securing 48 of 56 seats in Johor and 18 of 36 seats in Negeri Sembilan. However, these victories may not be sufficient to compel UMNO to push for an early election. UMNO is exploring the potential of a grand collaboration with Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS), which could provide a formidable electoral machine in GE16.

UMNO and PAS have formed a supermajority with 25 seats in Negeri Sembilan, and UMNO has extended an invitation to PAS leaders to engage in a "grand collaboration". While PAS leaders were not invited by Pakatan Harapan (PH) leaders, UMNO's approach appears to be a rebranded version of the old Muafakat Nasional alliance between UMNO and PAS. UMNO seems to be positioning itself as the dominant partner, with PAS playing the role of a junior coalition partner.

The arithmetic presented by UMNO suggests that a united UMNO-PAS ticket could potentially secure around 100 parliamentary seats in GE16, potentially even more if the political winds shift in favor of a "Malay Tsunami". This would require PAS to accept certain concessions, including larger shares of oil and gas revenue, increased parliamentary representation, and addressing the entitlement to 40% of federal revenue in Sabah, among other demands.

However, securing these concessions before the election remains a challenge for Anwar Ibrahim, who may choose to delay GE16 to secure additional support from East Malaysian voters.