China Could Curb Fuel Exports as Diesel and Gasoline Stocks Sink

China's diesel and gasoline inventories are dwindling, potentially prompting the country to impose export curbs, according to Bloomberg's reporting. State-owned energy firms reported a 2.9% decline in gasoline inventories last week, marking their lowest point since 2022, while diesel inventories hit their lowest in 15 months, with a 2.4% reduction, as noted by JLC International.

Analyst Jiana Sun from Energy Aspects suggested that a tightening domestic market could increase the likelihood of Beijing restricting monthly exports of clean products to approximately 1.2 million tons in the fourth quarter. China had previously enacted export curbs on fuel producers in the spring, responding to uncertainties regarding fuel supply security following the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, which exacerbated doubts about global fuel security.

In March, Beijing instructed energy companies to suspend new fuel export contracts, attempting to cancel existing fuel shipments abroad as global fuel markets tightened. The ban on fuel exports took immediate effect, with state refiners' gasoline and diesel stocks reaching their highest levels since 2025 and 2024, respectively. Beijing relaxed the export restrictions a month later, with June witnessing a surge in exports due to a Middle East supply shortage caused by drone and missile strikes on refineries.

The relaxation of the export ban has persisted since, leading to substantial growth in exports, particularly in fuel oil, which peaked at a 2026 high in June. If China chooses to limit fuel exports now to safeguard its domestic market, this move would exacerbate an already challenging global scenario characterized by severe diesel shortages that cannot be mitigated through supplier diversification due to the lack of alternative suppliers, and a seasonal surge in demand.