Carnival selloff overdone, a buying opportunity into earnings: Stifel

Stifel has advised investors to consider buying Carnival shares following a recent selloff, ahead of the cruise operator's third-quarter results scheduled for September 29. Analyst Steven Wieczynski argued that fears over Caribbean pricing, higher oil prices, and demand have already been priced into the stock, labeling the recent decline as another overreaction that presents a buying opportunity.

Carnival shares have dropped about 27% over the past six weeks, while the S&P 500 has remained flat and global fuel prices have surged roughly 24%. While Wieczynski acknowledged intensifying competition in the Caribbean could put pressure on pricing in the near term, he estimated the impact at just 50 to 75 basis points. He noted that Carnival was already 93% booked for fiscal 2026 back in June and expects help to arrive as Caribbean capacity normalizes and rival Norwegian Cruise Line adopts a more measured approach to ship fill rates.

Positive qualitative commentary on 2027 bookings could provide a near-term catalyst, given the negative sentiment. Stifel also believed Carnival's 2029 financial targets were significantly underappreciated, and any weakness in Royal Caribbean or Viking as a result of Carnival's earnings could present additional buying opportunities, as both companies are better positioned.