Can Canada and the EU build a deeper partnership?

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney arrived in Europe, setting the stage for his visit by advocating for a unique alliance with the European Union (EU). While Canada may not aspire to full EU membership, the prospect of a deeper partnership is open according to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The partnership would encompass various sectors such as advanced manufacturing, technology, defense production, Arctic exploration, energy, critical minerals, batteries, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, cybersecurity, and economic security.

During his upcoming speech at the European Parliament, Carney will outline his vision for the future relations between the EU and Canada. EU member states have diverse options for establishing ties with non-EU countries, ranging from free trade agreements to association agreements with political components, and even comprehensive economic arrangements like participation in the common European market. The EU has already negotiated association agreements with Turkey, Israel, and Ukraine.

Patrick Leblond, an expert on international economic relations at the University of Ottawa, warns against the term "association agreement," suggesting that Canada is more likely to form a deeper alliance focused on economic security and defense cooperation. Anand Sundar, a security analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations, sees great potential for European-Canadian cooperation in defense, as Canada currently relies heavily on US-made equipment.

Canada has joined the EU's Security Action for Europe (SAFE) program, which provides up to €150 billion for joint procurement of military equipment.

The European Union is particularly drawn to Canada's underrated defense capabilities. Canada spends more on defense than the combined defense budgets of the 14 smallest EU member states. Furthermore, Canada invests 2% of its GDP on defense, with an expected increase in the coming years. The EU and Canada also intend to explore potential cooperation in critical infrastructure expansion, such as joint operation of space satellites or maintenance of fiber-optic cables in the North Atlantic.

However, the EU's Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) with Canada has not fully realized its potential, as many Canadian companies still focus on the US rather than Europe. Economic analyst Patrick Leblond believes the government should provide more information about CETA and its opportunities, as the level of exchange envisaged could be intensified. In recent weeks, the US-Canada trade war has escalated, prompting Carney to warn of a potential rupture in the world order, urging middle powers to act together.