CaixaBank venderá más riesgo para blindar el dividendo pese al alza del crédito

CaixaBank has devised a strategy to maintain credit growth well above initial projections while safeguarding its solvency and shareholder returns. The key players in this strategy are significant risk transfers (SRTs). The bank has informed analysts of an accelerated pace of operations in the final stretch of the year. The goal is to remove capital-intensive assets from the balance sheet, making room for more profitable loans and higher dividends.

The second quarter of the year was merely a prelude. CaixaBank has reduced its risk-weighted assets by nearly 1,000 million euros, primarily through the sale of a loan portfolio to investors valued at 2.5 billion euros. More projects are in the works. Bank officials assure there are several projects on the table. The objective is for the growth of risk-weighted assets to be significantly lower than that of the loan portfolio, allowing CaixaBank to retain the income from the higher credit business without the burden of reserving capital for it.

The bank has a concrete figure in mind. As the loan portfolio grows, CaixaBank intends for risk-weighted assets to grow at a much slower rate, increasing by 150 basis points. This strategy has two benefits: growth becomes cheaper and more profitable, consuming less capital, freeing up additional solvency for greater dividend distribution and share buybacks.

JPMorgan has already done the math. The strong generation of organic capital should allow CaixaBank to return around 17 billion euros to shareholders from projected profits for the period 2026 to 2028 (19% of the stock capitalization), without giving up the option to use excess capital, the bank assures. Risk transfer will be crucial.

Bank officials have indicated they will remain active in the SRT market, especially as loan growth exceeding expectations requires more capital optimization in a favorable market environment, analysts from Barclays note in a report. CaixaBank's appetite is optimistic about prospects, having studied the terrain to increase its activity in the sale of loan packages and considers the market favorable with ample liquidity and good costs.

The number of banks seeking SRTs has increased, and investors are responding with enthusiasm. CaixaBank views this as good news, and the International Association of Credit Portfolio Managers (IACPM) backs it. The increase in SRTs last year is a clear sign these operations meet the needs of an increasing number of banks looking to free up capital to grant new loans contributing to regional and global economic growth, the association reported before summer.

The intensity of CaixaBank's operations in the coming months will depend on credit evolution, but the first half's success gives a good idea of how reality has surpassed projections. The bank's success in doubling its credit growth estimate for 2026, as set out in its 2025-2027 strategic plan, puts it in a position to capitalize on growth opportunities in an expanding market, backed by a growing population and a robust labor market, JPMorgan notes.

CaixaBank prefers to be cautious and not blow the whistle prematurely. There are too many uncertainties and external circumstances that could condition economic expansion and affect the loan business. Even so, the bank is clear that by year-end it will far exceed projections. Its bet is that growth will surpass 7%. Popularity grows despite regulator doubts.

The European Central Bank (BCE) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have expressed doubts about significant risk transfers (SRTs) and are not the only ones. They acknowledge the positive aspects for banks but also the dangers, such as the possibility of entities having trouble refinancing operations or transferring assets to unregulated market segments.

The impact on banks has been null. The volume of SRTs has been growing every year, with more entities of all sizes selling their risk to investors.