Bitcoin awaits Fed rate decision below $76K as analysis discounts ‘dovish surprise’ odds
Bitcoin price support materialized around $68,000 as markets saw a 93% chance of the Fed hiking rates by 0.25% on Wednesday.
Bitcoin's price hovered near $68,000 as the Federal Reserve prepared to hike interest rates by 0.25% on Wednesday, with a 93% chance of this occurring. BTC remained near its monthly lows, falling to $74,960 the day before. The CLARITY Act's failure to pass in the Senate, as it lacked the 60 votes needed for debate, shifted focus to the Fed.
The Fed is caught between curbing inflation and President Trump's call for lower rates. CME Group's FedWatch Tool gave a 90% chance of a 0.25% hike, pushing the federal funds rate to 3.75-4%. This near certainty of a rate hike made it a "dovish surprise" since 1994, according to The Kobeissi Letter. The Fed's decision is one of three this month, with the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan also planning rate hikes.
Rising oil prices, due to the Middle East conflict, have impacted US inflation, with WTI crude oil reaching $106.70 per barrel. Glassnode, an onchain analytics platform, identified $68,000 as the next support level if the BTC/USD range breaks, with $71,300 as another potential support from short-term holders. Should the range break, the support could further drop to $62K-$65K, where around 9% of the supply moved onchain.
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