Al-Qaida and IS-linked violence in Africa’s Sahel belt set to hit record levels this year

Twenty-five years after the 9/11 terror attacks, Islamist extremist violence in Africa's Sahel region is poised to surpass all previous records, according to recent data from the conflict monitor Acled. With the US commemorating the 25th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, the statistics highlight the continued growth of al-Qaida and Islamic State-linked groups in the heart of the Sahel region.

Specifically, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have experienced a surge in jihadist-related incidents, skyrocketing from just 63 in 2016 to an alarming 2,845 in 2025. So far this year, 2,145 such events have been recorded, indicating a high likelihood of over 3,000 events by the end of the year if the trend persists.

While global terrorism deaths have reached their lowest levels since 2008, the Sahel region has witnessed a sharp increase in fatalities. According to the 2026 Global Peace Index report, more than 9,000 deaths from security incidents occurred across Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger in 2025. In April, a joint offensive by Jama'at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) struck government forces and their Russian allies with ambushes, car bombs, drones, and raids, resulting in significant casualties.

The attack targeted strategic towns, infrastructure, and resulted in the tragic deaths of Mali's defense minister and head of military intelligence. Other assaults targeted Mali's international airport, while rebels seized control of the strategically significant city of Kidal. This defeat marked a significant setback for the Mali junta, who had previously won a crucial victory three years earlier.

Since then, JNIM has expanded its control in Mali, claimed more soldiers and mercenaries, and extended its operations into neighboring countries.

Much of the violence in the region involves conflicts between rival groups, with government forces and Russian mercenaries also responsible for multiple killings. In Burkina Faso, JNIM has claimed over 130 attacks in 2026, increasing near the capital, Ouagadougou. Niger has seen at least 17 attacks from JNIM but remains less active compared to the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara.

Experts emphasize that JNIM has distanced itself from al-Qaida's historical goals of targeting the US and its allies. Ulf Laessing, a senior analyst at the Konrad Adenauer foundation, notes that while IS and al-Qaida command significant territories in the Sahel, their operations remain localized, with no attacks planned in Europe or the US.

The other major al-Qaida-linked group in sub-Saharan Africa, al-Shabaab, remains active in Somalia, responsible for hundreds of deaths annually. Despite some decline in extortion activities in Mogadishu, al-Shabaab's revenue networks span the entire country. Analysts highlight the continent's vulnerability to militant recruitment due to factors such as sectarian and ethnic conflicts, resource competition, poor governance, and endemic instability.

However, these same conditions limit the effectiveness of militant groups in Africa, as their territories offer limited capacity for campaigns or long-range terrorist attacks. While al-Qaida's propaganda has welcomed the expansion of groups in Africa, experts stress that the continent's significance in the group's strategic planning only emerged recently.

After the 9/11 attacks, al-Qaida focused primarily on Afghanistan and Iraq, but today it operates as a primary area for its activities.