AI Superforecasting Should Transform The FDA

Superforecasters, the AI-driven predictors, are set to revolutionize the FDA's regulatory landscape. These machines could replace human judgment in the approval process, providing objective insights into the likelihood of success for new drugs. Institutions large and small will increasingly rely on these AI superforecasts to inform crucial decisions, from business strategy to political campaigning.

Though the government isn't traditionally viewed as a savvy entity, it may eventually seek the guidance of such predictive systems. In the realm of clinical trials and drug development, cheap superforecasting could be a game-changer, streamlining the FDA's notoriously protracted and costly approval process. Currently, the FDA operates on a "government of men" model, relying on subjective human judgment to evaluate new medications.

This leads to delays, exorbitant costs, and questionable approval decisions. If the FDA could harness the power of AI superforecasting, it could provide clearer, more objective criteria for companies to follow, thereby fostering innovation and streamlining the drug approval process.