미 국채금리 고공행진…AI 투자·글로벌 금융시장 불안감 커져

The steady rise in global government bond yields continues to fuel concerns about increased global asset price volatility, driven by artificial intelligence-related companies. This trend is particularly evident in South Korea's foreign exchange and market interest rates, which are directly influenced by government bond yields. According to the Fed Watch Tool from the Chicago Board Options Exchange, there is a 92.5% chance that the US Federal Reserve will raise the benchmark federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points during their meeting in Chicago on the morning of the 17th (Korean time), potentially marking the start of a more significant interest rate cycle.

Market participants are closely watching whether the Federal Reserve will make this a one-time adjustment or the beginning of a series of rate hikes. Global economic factors such as rising international commodity prices and increased US government spending may influence US monetary policy. In the government bond market, this concern has already been reflected in yield benchmarks.

The 10-year Treasury yield, which reached 5.04% on July 15, hit a 15-year high, outpacing Japan's 3.04%, the United Kingdom's 5.38%, Germany's 3.54%, and France's 4.50%.

A combination of factors contribute to the rapid increase in global government bond yields, including ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict driving oil prices above $100 per barrel, the lowest global petroleum reserves since April last year, and concerns over potential future US government bond issuances. These factors, along with the fact that major investors, including Japan and China, are selling their US Treasury holdings to strengthen their domestic currencies, could lead to a significant impact on the global financial market.