Will ‘transactional’ America assist India in a future border crisis with China?
When Chinese President Xi Jinping met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi last week on the sidelines of the Brics summit, another country loomed large in the background, even in its absence: the United States. After the meeting, both sides reaffirmed their commitment to maintain peace at the disputed border and strengthen economic ties. Beijing’s readout, however, offered a pointed…
In a meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi, the global stage was dominated by a single nation: the United States. Both leaders reaffirmed their commitment to peace at the border and strengthening economic ties. However, China's statement suggested that the US factor played a significant role in India-China relations, asserting that India's policy was independent and not influenced by any third party, including the US.
Analysts believe that the US' shifting priorities and strained ties with India are strengthening New Delhi's preference for strategic autonomy, influencing its approach to China. While the US may stand by India in a potential border crisis with China, as it did during the 2020 Galwan clashes, New Delhi should be prepared to defend its territory on its own.
Former Indian foreign secretary Nirupama Rao stated that American assistance would be more substantial if Beijing attempted a significant unilateral alteration of the status quo.
India's attempts to stabilize ties with China come amid frayed relations with the US over trade, tariffs, oil sanctions, visa restrictions, and rising anti-India rhetoric from Trump's base. Despite not being a treaty ally of the US, India maintains strong defense ties with Washington, focusing on peace and security in the Indo-Pacific region.
During their bilateral talks, Modi emphasized the importance of peace and tranquility in the border areas for bilateral relations, while Xi called for parallel development and mutual promotion of bilateral relations and border issues.
The India-China border situation remains tense, with thousands of troops deployed on either side and numerous border arrangements in place. Analysts suggest that India must balance a strong China, a weaker Russia, and a less dependable, transactional, and semi-isolationist America. While the US' support for India in a Galwan-like clash is uncertain, it is likely to be more substantial than during previous crises, as seen in 2020 when the US provided India with surveillance drones and logistical assistance.
Written by urgent.news from South China Morning Post's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
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