The State of the Union lottery: What will Ursula von der Leyen say?
The war in Ukraine, enlargement, migration, climate and trade are all expected to feature in Brussels’ most eagerly awaited speech of the year — with the possibility of a surprise announcement always lurking around the corner.
The upcoming State of the Union speech by Ursula von der Leyen, scheduled to be delivered to the European Parliament, will likely cover a range of critical topics. As the final version can be modified until the very last moment, one of the key issues expected to be addressed is a proposal for an EU-wide social media ban for minors, which has been in the works for some time.
This proposal, expected to be presented as the EU Kids Act, may include restrictions on the minimum age for various online platforms, including video games and AI companions. The extent to which von der Leyen will push for harmonization across Europe in this area remains to be seen.
Another significant topic likely to be highlighted is Ukraine, as the country faces a severe budget shortfall and a renewed debate over using Russia's frozen assets. The Commission has been asked to find creative solutions that would protect Belgium, home to the affected asset manager Euroclear, from potential litigation. During her speech, von der Leyen is expected to emphasize EU support for Ukraine and feature a Ukrainian athlete, Oleksandra Paskal, who overcame adversity and now competes alongside able-bodied gymnasts.
Additionally, further sanctions against Russia may be announced, especially in light of the recent attempted drone attack at Leipzig airport.
Migration and border control are also likely to be prominent themes in von der Leyen's speech. The influx of migrants into Ceuta last July raised concerns among EU governments, and three main options for addressing this issue are being considered. These include a temporary suspension of asylum rules in cases of sudden, large-scale arrivals; bolstering Frontex, the EU border agency, with a wide-ranging reform; and establishing "return hubs" in non-EU countries to relocate rejected asylum seekers. The extent of EU funding for these measures is also under discussion.
Lastly, the future of EU enlargement will be addressed, as the accession process in the Western Balkans and Eastern Europe shows promise, while the EU struggles to attract wealthier neighbors. Discussions may revolve around the possibility of reducing the number of new members, focusing on reforming the Union instead of expanding it.
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