The Pound drifts lower as the Fed lines up a rate above the Bank of England's
GBP/USD closed Tuesday near 1.3470, down 0.2%. Wednesday's Asian and London hours are the last before the Fed is expected to raise its rate for the first time since July 2023. By the New York close its ceiling should sit a quarter-point above Bank Rate.
The British pound slipped lower as the Federal Reserve prepared to raise interest rates above the Bank of England's. On Tuesday, GBP/USD settled near 1.3470, dipping 0.2%. Before the Fed's anticipated rate hike this Wednesday, the market expected the bank rate to be a quarter-point higher. The Bank of England will vote on Thursday, and it is anticipated to maintain the same rate.
GBP/USD pricing represents the difference between expectations of the two central banks, not the current level. The Bank of England's target is 3.75%, while the Fed's range tops out at 3.75%, with the American ceiling rising to 4.00% on Wednesday. Futures suggest the Fed could be at 4.25% or higher by March and potentially 4.50% or higher by June.
The Bank of England's futures are priced for four hikes by mid-year, matching market expectations. Among the major central banks, only the European Central Bank has increased rates since June, while the Fed has raised rates on Wednesday, and the Bank of England has held at 3.75% for five consecutive meetings. This disparity stems from the different calendars: the Fed's first hike occurs on Wednesday, while the Bank of England has not moved since May.
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