The new AI divide and Saudi Arabia’s balancing act

The new artificial intelligence divide is reshaping geopolitical rivalries, with the United States and China vying for control over critical technological spheres. President Donald Trump's administration is urging partner nations to choose between American and Chinese ecosystems, highlighting that the competition extends beyond mere model development.

At the heart of this competition lies the ability to forge extensive international networks around chips, data centers, companies, and technological standards. The US administration is contemplating asking countries involved in both the American Pax Silica initiative and the China-led Global Organisation for AI Cooperation to select one side. While Pax Silica comprises 24 partners, the Chinese framework boasts 29 founding states.

Beyond mere numerical superiority, the balance of power hinges on economic weight, semiconductor capacity, computing power, manufacturing bases, mineral resources, and each camp's ability to establish technological standards. Artificial intelligence has become too intricate for a single country to dominate alone, requiring a complex supply chain encompassing critical minerals, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, chips, energy, data centers, cloud computing, models, and applications.

The US is attempting to entice countries controlling various supply chain components into a trusted network, while China is constructing its alternative ecosystem based on industrial prowess, digital infrastructure, open-weight models, and growing ties with emerging economies. In the Gulf region, these divisions are already apparent.

The UAE steadfastly aligns with the US ecosystem, whereas Oman has joined the China-led framework. Saudi Arabia, however, remains outside these camps, retaining technological connections with both the US and China alongside Europe.

The looming question is whether Saudi Arabia can sustain this middle-ground position as access to advanced US technology may become contingent on choosing a clear camp. The US initiated Pax Silica in December 2025 to foster a network of trusted countries within AI, semiconductor, and critical mineral supply chains. In July, China launched the Global Organisation for AI Cooperation.

Notable Pax Silica members include Japan, South Korea, India, the UK, Australia, the European Union, UAE, and Qatar. China's organization encompasses Russia, Brazil, Indonesia, Pakistan, South Africa, and Algeria.

While clear boundaries exist between the two camps, countries like Kazakhstan have joined both initiatives, exemplifying the overlap Washington aims to prevent. With the US retaining critical advantages in chip markets and cloud infrastructure, China has capitalized on open-weight models and locally runnable models, reducing reliance on American counterparts.

Saudi Arabia's Humain company is spearheading the nation's AI revolution. As the US and China forge rival AI ecosystems, Gulf states find themselves entangled in a technological divide, potentially becoming increasingly challenging to navigate.