Sources: the US Commerce Department last month ordered Kalshi to take down an AI compute futures product, citing national security concerns; Kalshi complied (Semafor)

The US Commerce Department ordered Kalshi to remove a product tracking the price of AI compute, citing national security concerns. The decision was made to take down Kalshi's AI-compute future curve, according to people familiar with the matter. The product gathered data from various markets to determine the cost of renting Nvidia chips and provide an overall view of AI compute cost trends.

Kalshi complied with the order, though many underlying markets remain open for trading. The Commerce Department also pushed the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to halt the approval of new compute contracts for 60 days. This intervention surprised the industry, which is typically enthusiastic about both AI and financial-market innovation.

Commerce and Kalshi declined to comment on the matter, and the CFTC did not respond to a request for comment. The uncertainty surrounding AI compute costs has led to the emergence of a futures market, which aims to help buyers and sellers lock in prices and provide a way for traders to bet on where those prices will go. Market participants suggest that compute futures could be manipulated to show a sharp decrease in the cost of older chips, potentially destabilizing AI stocks and debt markets.