Red Sea disruption puts global mining supplies at risk
GEM modelling flags acids, fertilizers, battery inputs and fuels as vulnerable to higher costs and shipping delays.
The Red Sea disruption caused by Houthi militants' control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could put global mining supplies at risk, according to GEM Mining Consulting. A 90-day disruption could affect 38.9 million to 77.8 million tonnes of commodity and input flows, with a central estimate of 61.1 million tonnes. The modelling suggests that the value-weighted price-pressure range could be 1.2% to 10.5%, with a central scenario of 3.4%.
Associated cost premiums could range from $480 million to $2.48 billion, with a central case at $1.37 billion. The disruption could delay critical inputs such as sulfuric acid, explosives feedstock, and battery materials, impacting mine production ranging from 0.8 million to 13.8 million tonnes and delayed demand from 12.6 million to 33.7 million tonnes.
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