Qatar warns of ‘catastrophic’ Bab al-Mandeb closure: What it means for oil, shipping and global trade

Qatar has issued a stern warning that the closure of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait could lead to "catastrophic" repercussions for global trade and energy markets. This concern stems from the expansion of Houthi forces, backed by Iran, along Yemen's Red Sea coast. The official from Qatar's foreign ministry, Ibrahim Al Hashmi, expressed his apprehension, stating, "The world is suffering enough with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, so we cannot also afford to add the Bab al-Mandeb into that equation."

The Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a vital maritime passage, connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and plays a crucial role in global shipping routes between Asia and Europe. Measuring approximately 29 kilometers at its narrowest point, it serves as the main gateway for vessels approaching the Suez Canal from the Indian Ocean. The strait is 29 kilometers wide at its narrowest point.

The Houthi forces, already in control of Hodeidah port, have reportedly advanced towards Mocha, Dhubab, Perim, and the Hanish Islands, potentially encroaching on one of the world's busiest shipping routes. This development has heightened concerns, especially considering that the strait facilitates about 7% of global oil output, according to Kpler data.

Furthermore, Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, has declared a maritime blockade against the Houthis, adding to the pressure on shipping security in the Red Sea.

The closure of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait could force ships to circumvent the Red Sea and Suez Canal, opting instead for the more prolonged route around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa. This detour can significantly extend shipping times and escalate costs associated with fuel, insurance, and freight. Such disruptions could also strain global supply chains by delaying deliveries, with far-reaching implications beyond Yemen.

Since late 2023, several major shipping companies and oil firms, including Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, and BP, have been rerouting vessels around Africa to avoid the Red Sea due to Houthi attacks. A renewed escalation around the Bab al-Mandeb could exacerbate these disruptions on a larger scale, potentially leading to increased costs for businesses and consumers.