Only China, India, and Russia can end the Iran war

China, India, and Russia possess the capability to bring an end to the ongoing conflict in Iran. At the recent 18th BRICS summit, world leaders, including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Chinese President Xi Jinping, discussed various geopolitical issues, including the war in Iran. Although Iran was not the primary topic of discussion, it is likely that private conversations between the leaders touched upon the subject.

The United States has been involved in the war since its inception, and despite the attempts to resolve it, the conflict persists and may never conclude as Washington initially envisioned. US President Donald Trump has publicly stated that the war will end after the November midterms, although this appears to be more of a political statement than a strategic plan.

The US administration lacks a credible strategy for overcoming the challenge without resorting to either an extended military campaign or a negotiation that would be perceived as capitulation by Trump's supporters and Israel. Iran, on the other hand, requires a security guarantee that the United States cannot provide, as any assurances made by Washington can be reversed by subsequent administrations or the same administration.

Additionally, Iran needs a source of economic relief that does not rely on the US financial system, as any relief contingent on American goodwill can be abruptly halted. Russia, China, and India are uniquely positioned to fulfill these requirements, while the United States cannot. Russia has a long-standing defensive partnership with Iran, offering diplomatic support, verification regime participation, and a channel for Iran to assert its sovereignty.

China, through its extensive oil trade with Iran, can provide economic relief and investment opportunities. India, despite its dual relationships with both the United States and Iran, can facilitate diplomatic discussions between the two parties and potentially act as a broker for a resolution. A plausible sequence for resolving the Iran war involves Iran accepting a verification framework negotiated with Russia's backing, as outlined by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

China would then expand its investments in Iran, compensating for the economic instability caused by US sanctions relief. The presence of India in facilitating diplomatic talks and potentially hosting subsequent agreements further strengthens the prospects for a peaceful resolution. Ultimately, Trump will be able to claim that Iran will never possess a nuclear weapon, allowing him to secure support for his stance, while the war concludes without the deployment of US troops in the region or the necessity for further Israeli strikes.

The Gulf Cooperation Council states have been observing this evolving situation with growing confidence, and their increasing involvement in BRICS-related institutions and security alliances with China and Russia may prove instrumental in achieving a lasting solution to the Iran conflict without the need for US troops to remain indefinitely or Israel resorting to additional military actions.