Newsom vs. Harris Chances Against Vance as Governor Defers to Former VP

California Governor Gavin Newsom has stated he would not run for president in 2028 if former Vice President Kamala Harris enters the race, as recent polling suggests both Democrats would fare closely against Vice President JD Vance. Newsom told CNN's Jake Tapper that "I wouldn’t run if she ran," expressing that he wouldn't diminish her or anyone else's efforts.

Recent Emerson College polling shows Harris leading Vance 49 percent to 45 percent in a hypothetical 2028 matchup, while Newsom leads Vance 49 percent to 44 percent. Neither candidate has officially announced their presidential intentions, but both have hinted at considering a run. Vance has not announced a campaign, yet speculation about his chances for 2028 has been circulating, as seen at the Republican National Committee's midterm convention in Dallas, where supporters chanted "48" during his keynote address.

Newsom believes a primary fight against Harris would be unnecessary, arguing that their overlapping Democratic constituencies would only cause divisiveness. He further noted that Harris has already had two opportunities to run for the presidency, while he has never run before, giving him a "pretty good" reason to decline. In a recent national general-election poll, Newsom was at 49 percent compared to Vance's 44 percent in a hypothetical matchup.

The poll also showed Harris at 49 percent and Vance at 45 percent. Other polls, such as a September Yahoo News survey and a January Zogby Analytics survey, have also found competitive matchups between Newsom and Vance, with Vance trailing by 3 to 4 percentage points.