New Zealand poll puts Labour ahead of PM Luxon’s National Party

New Zealand's Labour Party has reportedly surged ahead of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's National Party in the latest poll, according to a report by the Post-Freshwater Strategy. The survey, which polled 1,011 eligible voters aged 18 and over online between September 4 and 11, found Labour leading with 28% support, compared to the National Party's 27%.

However, the poll indicates that neither party can secure a majority on its own, potentially resulting in a hung parliament ahead of the November 7 election. The modelling suggests that National, alongside its governing partners ACT New Zealand and New Zealand First, would secure 60 seats, falling short of the 61 needed for a majority. Labour, along with the Greens and Te Pati Maori, would gather 53 seats.

The Opportunity Party, a smaller party, would win seven seats, thereby holding the balance of power. Notably, Luxon has ruled out working with the Opportunity Party, which complicates National's prospects of forming a government in the next term. The poll, funded by Infrastructure New Zealand, does not factor in potential overhang seats, which could further influence the outcome of the election.