Natural Gas: Higher winter curve and risk ranges – Rabobank

RaboResearch has increased its TTF forecasts to €72/MWh for Q4 2026 and €58/MWh for Q1 2027. The reasons cited include prolonged Hormuz disruptions, low European storage, and greater reliance on LNG. While prices are expected to ease to around €40/MWh in 2027, the bank warns that further infrastructure limitations could push TTF prices into the €50–60/MWh range for most of next year.

The Q4 2026 TTF price forecast has been raised to €72/MWh to account for the ongoing Hormuz disruptions and a slower-than-anticipated recovery in Qatari LNG supply. Elevated gas prices are expected to persist this winter and into 2027 due to the need for faster replenishment of low storage levels. For the full year, European gas prices are projected to hover in the mid-€40s, with JKM gas prices anticipated around $15/MMBtu.

The possibility of further infrastructure curtailments that hinder the recovery in gas flows could drive TTF and JKM gas markets back to the price levels last seen in 2022, as indicated in a previous energy report. It was unclear at the time of the incident which energy facility in the region had been targeted or whether any damage was inflicted on Russia's Yamal LNG terminal.

Damage similar to that inflicted on Qatar's Ras Laffan terminal earlier this year could push TTF and JKM gas markets back to the price ranges last observed in 2022.