Na Venezuela, reconstruir o setor elétrico pode exigir até US$ 40 bilhões

Reconstructing Venezuela's electrical sector may require up to US$40 billion, a consultant says. The process could take up to a decade and will bring in many investors, but it is a complex period, according to Francisco Morandi, a former AES global VP. Major players in this effort are expected to be oil companies like Chevron and independent American players, with many linked to hedge funds, as well as private equity groups.

Venezuelan companies are unlikely to be the first movers, Morandi says. Some Brazilian and Colombian groups, especially those with good relations with the US government, are also potential candidates. Chinese involvement is unlikely due to the United States' dominant role in the new Venezuela. A key factor in attracting capital will be the approval of a new law for the electrical industry, currently under discussion in Congress.

This law aims to open the door to private investments in partnership, similar to the recently approved Production Participation Contracts (CPP) for the oil sector. Morandi estimates that it will take at least three years and up to a decade to recover the electrical network, which was previously the third largest in Latin America before Hugo Chavez nationalized the industry in the late 2000s.

The current situation is dire, with only 12 to 13 GW of the 36 GW installed capacity currently operational. Morandi suggests that the start of investments could come through gas generation systems associated with the oil industry, but a functioning national grid will require significant improvements in transmission and distribution, a process that will take time.