Iraq’s future murky as pro-Iran militias likely to retain arms after US pullout

Political analyst Ihsan Al-Shammari has cautioned that Iraq might suffer significant political repercussions and diplomatic isolation if it were to abandon its policy of limiting weapons to state control. The Center for Political Thinking's head issued this warning amid shifts in the US perspective towards Baghdad. During an interview with Al Arabiya FM, Al-Shammari highlighted that the United States' position has evolved as some Iraqi parties have withdrawn their commitment to keeping arms solely under state jurisdiction.

Although no specific timeline has been set for resolving this matter, Al-Shammari pointed out that Iraq is facing pressure from the Coordination Framework, armed factions, and Iran, which has effectively vetoed any move to restrict weapons to the Iraqi state. He underscored that persisting in reversing the arms control policy could lead to severe consequences for Iraq, asserting, "Iraq's reversal on restricting weapons to state control will come at a high cost and likely diplomatic isolation."

Al-Shammari's comments follow reports from Al Arabiya sources that the United States has suggested to the Iraqi government the necessity of completing the process of restricting weapons and preventing armed factions from targeting neighboring nations. These sources also revealed that Washington has hinted at potential actions against Iraq should it fail to tackle the arms issue and halt factions from attacking neighboring states.

Furthermore, these sources indicated possible measures regarding dollar shipments to Iraq if no progress is observed. Iraq has reportedly informed the US that it will proceed with the arms issue in a measured manner.