Iran cannot have it both ways
Those observing the past few days in the Middle East will have witnessed alarming Houthi gains in Yemen and the shelving of Iran-Gulf talks planned for Oman. It is likely that those same observers will also perceive a clear contradiction in Tehran’s approach; Iran cannot credibly seek better relations with its Gulf neighbours while continuing to enable armed groups that threaten and attack those…
Recent developments in the Middle East have highlighted a critical contradiction in Iran's approach. Iran recently shelved planned talks with Gulf neighbors in Oman, amid alarming Houthi gains in Yemen. The Houthis, with Iran's backing, have carried out more attacks on Saudi Arabia, pushing to expand their influence around the Red Sea and Bab Al Mandeb.
This aggression has displaced an estimated 80,000 people and marred any progress in diplomatic talks. Proposed discussions aimed at reducing the risk of a wider regional conflict were shelved, as diplomacy must be weighed against the ongoing attacks by Iranian-backed rebels in Iraq, who are firing missiles and drones towards Saudi Arabia.
The Houthis' growing presence near Bab Al Mandeb provides Tehran with strategic leverage beyond its own borders, threatening vital maritime routes and adding to the plight of Yemenis already suffering from a prolonged conflict. Despite the conflict's humanitarian impact, reaching a comprehensive understanding between Tehran and the Gulf countries is crucial.
However, any future agreement must address Iran's regional power, including its missile and drone capabilities, support for armed groups, and threats to maritime paths. Diplomacy cannot be abandoned, but it must be grounded in a realistic assessment of Iran's regional ambitions. Tehran needs stable relations with its neighbors, and the region's geography suggests that unending conflict is undesirable for all parties.
The current situation underscores that diplomatic progress cannot be separated from the ground reality; otherwise, assurances alone will not suffice in bridging the gap between Tehran and its neighbors.
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