How to save millions of lives as humanitarian funding falls? Taxing the rich
Putting a 3% tax on billionaires' wealth could save up to 29.5 million lives among the most vulnerable populations by 2030, according to new research published in The Lancet, as traditional sources of humanitarian and development funding face an unprecedented squeeze.
Humanitarian assistance for low- and middle-income countries is facing a significant funding crisis, but a new study suggests that taxing wealthy individuals could fill the gaps and potentially save millions of lives. The study highlights that donor countries are increasingly reallocating resources towards military spending, leaving humanitarian assistance underfunded.
With international aid expected to continue falling from 2025 to 2026, the consequences could be dire, with an estimated 7.6 million deaths, including 1.4 million among children under five, by 2030.
The research identified various wealth redistribution policies that could mitigate the negative impacts of ODA defunding. The most effective strategy, according to the study, is imposing a 3% tax on the wealth of billionaires. This would result in 29.5 million fewer deaths by 2030. A 1% tax on the wealth of the ultra-rich would save 15.1 million lives, while a tax on financial transactions, also known as a Tobin tax, could avert around 24.5 million deaths.
Implementing a global minimum tax on multinational companies with revenues exceeding €750 million would prevent approximately 20.1 million deaths.
The study analyzed data from 59 low- and lower-middle-income countries between 2002 and 2021, representing over 3.9 billion people. It modeled how different taxation policies could offset projected aid reductions through 2030. Despite wealth taxes being implemented in some countries, including Spain and France, they have gained renewed political momentum internationally, particularly among wealthy individuals themselves.
At the World Economic Forum in Davos earlier this year, hundreds of millionaires and billionaires called for increased taxes on the super-rich. The researchers emphasized that their findings are modelled estimates and not forecasts of deaths that will necessarily occur or be prevented. Nonetheless, they stress that even modest wealth redistribution policies could save tens of millions of lives in the coming years.
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