Handel: WTO warnt vor hohen Kosten einer gespaltenen Weltwirtschaft

Geneva - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has issued a stark warning about the potential economic losses that could arise if the world breaks apart into geopolitical power blocs, each largely engaging in separate trade through free trade zones. According to a study by the WTO, should this scenario come to pass, global economic output (gross domestic product) could be persistently around ten percent lower than in a scenario where trade cooperation is expanded, starting from 2050.

The study, titled "A Crucial Moment for the Global Trade System," predicts that exports under the "enhanced cooperation" scenario would be almost 45 percent higher per year by 2050 compared to the scenario where tariffs are only kept low within certain free trade zones. Enhanced cooperation refers to the expansion of rules similar to those in the World Trade Organization (WTO), where all countries lower their tariffs and costs of international trade among themselves.

"Global trade policy and the WTO are currently experiencing the most serious and persistent turbulence since the multilateral trade system was established 80 years ago," the report states. The report notes that integrating the world economy has created new sources of conflict and made free trade negotiations sometimes more difficult.

The WTO has been in existence since 1995, with its predecessor being the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) of 1947.