Guyana Economy Grew 33.3% in First Half of 2026, Ali Says

Guyana's economy expanded by a significant 33.3 percent in the first half of 2026, according to President Irfaan Ali's announcement at a press conference on Monday. This growth figure encompasses the entire real GDP, taking into account the burgeoning offshore oil sector. Ali also revised the government's full-year growth forecast upward to 20.8 percent, a considerable increase from the initial projection of 16.2 percent made in January.

Oil and gas production surged by an impressive 41.3 percent in the first half of the year, while mining and quarrying saw a 40.7 percent rise, with gold mining up 11.3 percent and bauxite up 7.3 percent. Other mining activities, including sand, stone, manganese, and diamonds, grew by 40 percent. Agricultural sectors also expanded, with sugar output increasing by 19.3 percent and rice by 4.4 percent. Forestry saw a 15.4 percent growth, and fishing expanded by 4.1 percent over the same period.

However, services and manufacturing sectors grew at a more modest pace, expanding by 7.2 percent and 3 percent, respectively. These numbers reveal that most of the growth is concentrated in extractive industries rather than the broader economy. Oil, gas, and mining together account for the majority of the headline 33.3 percent figure. Excluding oil, Guyana's non-oil economy expanded by 10.1 percent in the first half of 2026, which is still robust but significantly lower than the headline figure.

Economists generally consider non-oil growth as a more accurate measure of the well-being of ordinary Guyanese. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has stated that Guyana's growth is not solely driven by oil. The IMF projected average non-oil growth of about 7 percent per year over the next five years, which is lower than the 10.1 percent pace reported for the first half of 2026.

This discrepancy suggests that this year's non-oil performance might be ahead of the IMF's medium-term baseline, although it could change as slower-growing sectors catch up or as oil-linked construction spending eases.

Guyana's economy grew by 19.3 percent in all of 2025, making it one of the strongest growth years globally that year. The IMF estimated 2025 non-oil growth at about 14 percent, primarily driven by construction. Since 2020, Guyana's non-oil economy has expanded for six consecutive years, according to the IMF. President Ali had earlier projected first-half growth of over 35 percent during a speech at Guyana's International Building Expo in June, closely aligning with the 33.3 percent figure released in September.

The 33.3 percent growth figure was attributed to President Ali's remarks at the press conference, though it is not yet confirmed if it came from a published Bureau of Statistics report or preliminary Finance Ministry estimates. The Finance Ministry typically releases a Mid-Year Report annually with detailed, sector-by-sector GDP data.

As of Tuesday, the official report had not been publicly posted. Until its release, the 33.3 percent figure should be treated as a government estimate rather than a finalized, audited statistic.

Guyana's Ministry of Finance is expected to publish full GDP data later in the year, likely through a Mid-Year Report from the Finance Ministry. This document will clarify the methodology behind the 33.3 percent figure. Oil output is anticipated to continue rising as new offshore projects come online in the coming years, leading to further significant swings in Guyana's headline growth numbers.

Whether the non-oil growth of around 10 percent can be sustained will be crucial for most Guyanese, as the oil-inflated headline rate may not reflect their daily lives as much. Economists will closely monitor this non-oil figure when official data is finalized.