EU Gas Imports Could Reach 98% by 2050 Without New Field Investment
New Wood Mackenzie research modelled three EU domestic gas production scenarios to 2050 and found a cumulative gap of close to 1,000 bcm between the low and high cases, with the outcome hinging on fiscal stability, permitting reform, and exploration success in the Black Sea and East Mediterranean. Europe’s options on gas are narrowing. Without ...
New research from Wood Mackenzie projects that without new field investment, the European Union could import over 98% of its gas by 2050. The report, titled "EU Gas Imports Could Reach 98% by 2050 Without New Field Investment," outlines three scenarios for EU domestic gas production through 2050, with the gap between minimal and maximum production hinging on fiscal stability, permitting reform, and successful exploration in the Black Sea and East Mediterranean.
The baseline scenario, which assumes no new field investments, sees production falling to just 2 bcm by 2050, while LNG covers the shortfall. In the mid scenario, which reflects current policy and investment levels, production holds near 40 bcm until 2038, adding 330 bcm, but domestic gas still only covers 17% of demand. The high scenario, the only one that materially changes the EU's position, sees production reach 77 bcm by 2042, meeting 38% of demand and displacing the equivalent of 615 LNG cargoes a year.
Explorations in the Black Sea and East Mediterranean account for 680 bcm of the gap between low and high cases, with Greece alone holding a third of the yet-to-find potential.
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