El gasto en bajas aumenta cuando baja el paro: ya absorbe el 10,4% de las cotizaciones

The growing expense associated with short-term disability claims is on the rise when unemployment rates decline, now accounting for 10.4% of social security contributions. Over the period of 2020 to 2025, spending on these claims increased by 6.5 billion euros. If pension expenses are straining the Social Security deficit, which already exceeds 60 billion euros—including passive classes of the State—the exponential increase in expenditure for temporary incapacity benefits (labor layoffs) makes additional revenue enhancements, such as those introduced in the latest pension reform, ineffective in meeting payment commitments.

The increasing share of expenditure on temporary incapacity within total annual contributions highlights how labor layoffs have become a constraint on the system's financial margins. A Fedea study on Social Security reveals that the expense for disability-related benefits grew in absolute terms (to 18.413 million euros in 2025) and as a proportion of social security revenue.

In 2020, this expenditure represented 10.4% of total contributions, a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous year and four percentage points compared to three decades ago. Octavio Granado, a former Secretary of State for Social Security, notes that over recent years, spending on this category has surged. Between 2020 and 2025, total spending rose by more than 6.525 million euros, compared to 5.155 million euros over the preceding decade.

The study identifies a correlation between lower unemployment rates and heightened financial pressure due to temporary incapacity benefits, and vice versa. For instance, during the 2010-2015 period, when unemployment rates exceeded 20%, spending remained stable between 5 billion and 6 billion euros, whereas between 2020 and 2025, with a declining unemployment rate (from 16.1% to 9.9%), spending increased by over 6.5 billion euros.

The study suggests that as unemployment decreases, temporary incapacity benefits increase, and vice versa, explaining that the lower benefit base for self-employed workers results in less benefit usage across all demographics, sectors, and age groups. Trade union representatives argue that workforce reductions threaten jobs and businesses, forcing workers to maintain poor health, which the study attributes to the growing prevalence of mental health issues.

To curb the rising expense, the report proposes six measures, including eliminating disparities in disability benefit calculations, exploring gradual reintegration and partial high salaries, controlling and rehabilitating mental health, referring musculoskeletal disorders to mutual societies, revising wage supplements for prolonged absences, and exploring reemployment instead of dismissing employees from the system.