Deadlock deepens as post-deadline polls leave both blocs short of 61 Knesset seats - analysis

Since the deadline for submitting Knesset lists passed last week, the final polls have only made the political landscape more confusing, not clearer. Neither the "change bloc" led by Yoram Cohen nor the current coalition led by Gadi Eisenkot has managed to secure the necessary 61 seats for a majority. Polls now show both blocs tied at 52 seats each, with Arab parties winning 12 seats and a party headed by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha, which is not clearly aligned with either bloc, gaining four seats.

This scenario has left the political parties scrambling to recalibrate their strategies. The Likud party, for instance, is considering how to handle Ofer Winter and his People of Israel party. Winter has been under intense pressure to drop out of the race, but he has remained steadfast in his decision. Given his performance in recent polls, crossing the electoral threshold, Likud faces a dilemma: should they try to win back some of Winter's voters or ease up on him, potentially helping him cross the threshold and secure four possible seats for the Netanyahu bloc?

The deadlock in polls has also presented a dilemma for the change bloc and its leader, Yoram Cohen. Cohen has suggested two possible scenarios in a Channel 12 interview. If the bloc fails to secure a majority, Cohen believes they might establish a minority government with the support of Arab parties. This alternative could then try to attract other Zionist parties, including Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionist Party, and even Likud, but not necessarily under Netanyahu.

Cohen also mentioned that Yashar might emerge as the largest party if the election ends in a stalemate and lead a minority government. He ruled out cooperation with Otzma Yehudit, calling its leader a racist.

However, the possibility of such a scenario seems far-fetched. Likud has remained loyal to Netanyahu, and there is no indication of an internal revolt against him. Nonetheless, Cohen's comments indicate that both sides are beginning to consider what they might have to do if they do not secure a decisive victory in the upcoming election.

The parties are also turning to the Central Elections Committee to bar their rivals from the race. The Democrats are seeking to disqualify Otzma Yehudit, while Otzma Yehudit has responded with a petition to bar The Democrats and Raam. Likud, on the other hand, is attempting to disqualify the Arab parties. None of these efforts have a high chance of succeeding, but the political landscape is evolving rapidly as the parties grapple with the implications of the deadlocked polls.