Cómo entender la escalada de los bonos, con el de EEUU retando el 5%

Escalating bond yields are being driven by U.S. bonds touching 5% in return, challenging expectations. Inflationary concerns are mounting due to renewed tensions in the Middle East, coupled with the rising cost of energy. Market participants are wary of potential disruptions in global supply chains, which could cause a lasting decline in gas and oil production capacity.

This inflationary scenario is putting pressure on central banks to maintain restrictive monetary policies. The European Central Bank (ECB) recently raised interest rates, with the Federal Reserve expected to increase rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming meeting. The U.S., U.K., France, and Japan are facing significant challenges due to large deficits and public debt that will need refinancing at much higher interest rates.

Although experts believe the current situation is unlikely to persist, there is a risk of further pressure, particularly in longer-term maturities, if supply excesses or inflation spikes continue. Higher yields negatively impact fixed-income portfolios, especially those with longer durations, leading to potential losses and reduced protection of the traditional 60/40 portfolio allocation.

In Santalucía AM, duration management is crucial, with a cautious approach towards U.S. debt, French debt, and an emphasis on intermediate maturities over long-dated bonds. The crisis in the fixed-income market is also affecting listed companies, increasing borrowing costs, reducing profits, and lowering stock valuations. While banks benefit from higher interest rates, they face challenges from declining valuations, slower growth due to tighter financing conditions, and reduced business from mortgage and transaction slowdowns.

Nonetheless, experts advise investors not to panic and maintain their current positions, suggesting that current yields are attractive on a historical basis and offer an appealing entry point for long-term investors.