Coalition likely in Philippines’ Muslim south with no clear winner in election

In the Philippines' Muslim southern region, the upcoming election may necessitate coalition talks to determine the inaugural chief minister of the autonomous region. Unofficial results show no single bloc is on track to dominate the 80-member parliament. The race has been dominated by two factions that emerged from the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), a former separatist movement that negotiated autonomy with the Philippine government.

One faction, led by Al Haj Murad Ebrahim, the long-time MILF chairman, secured 32.4% of party-list votes, while the other, headed by Abdulraof Macacua, a former MILF commander appointed interim chief by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in 2025, garnered 35.2%. The third-party BARMM Grand Coalition holds 20.5% of the vote and could play a crucial role in coalition negotiations.

Benedicto Bacani, a policy research group focused on autonomy and governance, stated that neither faction is likely to secure the 41 seats required for a majority, emphasizing the need for coalition-building. He expressed hope for the unification of the MILF factions, believing it could strengthen peace and political stability in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao.

Voter turnout reached approximately 80%, with around 1.8 million votes cast from 2.39 million registered voters. The election marked a significant milestone since a 2014 peace agreement between Manila and the MILF, which aimed to alleviate the conflict that claimed over 120,000 lives, displaced nearly 2 million, and allowed extremist groups to infiltrate the region. The 2017 siege of Marawi City by Islamic State-linked militants highlighted the ongoing concerns.

In Tawi-Tawi, Arlene Sevilla, a civil society leader, emphasized the importance of voting in the landmark election, encouraging her four children to travel from Manila to cast their ballots. She cast her vote to seek capable leaders who could improve the lives of Bangsamoro residents.