Can Malaysia PM Anwar’s government survive the growing political standoff with Zahid?

Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim of Malaysia is facing increasing political tension with his deputy Ahmad Zahid Hamidi. The spat between the two leaders is largely about keeping UMNO's options open ahead of the next general election in February 2028. While Anwar has the final say on when to dissolve parliament, Zahid's United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) has several tactics to increase pressure.

In the UMNO General Assembly, Zahid presented Anwar with two options: either secure a fresh mandate through an election or formally remove UMNO from government and hold a confidence vote.

Earlier, Zahid had criticized Anwar over changes to the petrol subsidy quota under the BUDI95 scheme. He claimed that the subsidy was initially reduced and then increased when elections were approaching, suggesting Anwar was responsible. He also called for an immediate general election. Despite BN's recent successes in state elections and its collaboration with the opposition Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition, analysts believe BN is currently in a favorable position.

Anwar, who was in India, responded defensively to Zahid's comments on social media, expressing hope that the diplomatic visit would be successful.

The current government coalition comprises 76 PH MPs, 30 BN MPs, 23 MPs from Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), eight from Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS), and seven other government-aligned lawmakers. If all 30 BN MPs withdraw their support, Anwar would still have a slim majority in parliament, but BN could prevent the formation of a two-thirds majority and make it harder to pass key legislation, such as the Budget in October.

A strong performance in the upcoming Melaka state election could further bolster UMNO's position. However, political analysts suggest that even if UMNO applies pressure, Anwar's government may not fall immediately, as it could still secure a simple majority with the support of East Malaysian partners.