Broker’s call: Juniper Green (Buy)

Juniper Green Energy, a recently listed independent power producer (IPP) specializing in renewable energy, has captured the attention of analysts with its impressive growth prospects. Currently boasting an installed capacity of 2GW, the company is positioned as one of the smallest pure-play renewable energy players on the market.

However, Juniper Green is set to expand rapidly, with contracts already signed for an additional 2.7GW of capacity over the next two years. The potential for even more growth exists, as letters of award have been secured, which could lead to an additional 3.7GW, bringing the total portfolio capacity to a projected 8.4GW.

In their analysis, analysts have utilized a FY28 run-rate EBITDA valuation method, based on existing 25-year PPAs which are expected to be finalized by the end of FY28. The EV/EBITDA target multiple assigned to Juniper Green is 11.5x, derived from a base valuation of FY28-end capacity at 9x and taking into account a 50% probability of maintaining the expected capacity addition run-rate from FY26 to FY28.

After accounting for net debt as of March 2028, the equity value is determined to be ₹23,100 crore. Further, this figure is discounted back to September 2026 to arrive at a target price (TP) of ₹330 per share.

While the potential upside is significant, there are certain downside risks to consider. These include high leverage due to the projects being financed with an 80-20 debt equity ratio, potential increases in equipment and borrowing costs, delays in the commissioning of contracted capacity, and lower-than-expected generation.