British Pound wilts as Oil shock sends US yields past 5%

The British Pound experienced a decline against the US Dollar on Tuesday, slipping by around 0.07% to trade at 1.3487. This was due to inflows into the Greenback, triggered by a potential oil supply shortage and a lack of resolution to the Middle East conflict. Both key crude oil benchmarks, Brent and West Texas Intermediate, surged more than 2.40% and 1.10%, respectively, leading to a rise in US Treasury yields.

The 10-year yield climbed to 5.041%, a level last observed in 2007. Investors responded by pushing bond yields higher, prompted by concerns of a second wave of inflation.

On September 16, the Federal Reserve was set to raise rates by 25 basis points, with a high probability of 95%. Consequently, the US Dollar gained strength, pushing the USD Index (DXY) up by 0.16% to 99.62. US employment data showed a strong labor market, with the ADP Employment Change 4-week average rising by 16.25K from the previous week.

However, UK job data was weaker, with wages surpassing vacancies, pushing vacancies to a near six-year low. Wages excluding bonuses increased by 3.5% in the three-month period leading to July.

The Bank of England is expected to maintain interest rates at the September 17 meeting, although money markets anticipate a rate hike later in 2026. In the daily chart, GBP/USD was trading at 1.3478, with a neutral to slightly bearish near-term bias due to the pair slipping just below the clustered simple moving average composite around 1.3483.

Support levels include the simple moving average cluster at 1.3483 and the prior uptrend break near 1.3691, while resistance levels are at 1.3476 and the previous downtrend break around 1.3460 and 1.3351.