Australia must double down to meet our climate targets, new study shows how

Within the next five years, global warming is set to surpass the critical 1.5°C threshold established by the 2015 Paris Agreement, leading to catastrophic consequences such as rapidly melting ice sheets and dying coral reefs. Despite this alarming trend, Australia's government has been largely unresponsive to addressing climate change.

A new study, conducted by researchers at Climate Analytics and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, outlines steps Australia can take to limit this "overshoot" and meet its climate targets. However, it emphasizes that significant action is required. The report highlights that global temperatures exceeding the 1.5°C limit inflict irreversible ecological damage, with each fraction of a degree contributing to dire consequences.

The world still has the potential to limit peak warming to around 1.7°C, achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by the 2060s, and restore temperatures below 1.5°C by the year 2100. However, this is only possible if Australia and other nations take urgent and ambitious action. The primary cause of global greenhouse gas emissions is fossil fuels, comprising more than 75% of emissions worldwide.

Australia has committed to transitioning away from fossil fuels, as evidenced by its participation in international agreements such as the Belém Declaration. The country's energy system heavily relies on fossil fuels, accounting for 90% of its raw energy and a significant share of greenhouse gas emissions. To meet the suggested emissions pathway, Australia's net emissions must decrease 55% below 2005 levels by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050.

Yet, current policies are insufficient, with Australia only expected to meet its 2030 target of a 43% reduction. To achieve these targets, Australia would need to drastically reduce coal and liquefied natural gas production, with coal exports dropping by 95% by 2040 and LNG production decreasing by 25% before 2035. Significant policy changes are necessary, such as strengthening Australia's target for renewable energy to 82% by 2030, making it binding, and enforcing the Safeguard Mechanism to ensure industrial facilities reduce emissions.

The oil-dominated transport sector must also accelerate its electrification, while mining emissions could be eliminated by 2045 if diesel is replaced with electricity. Scrapping fossil fuel subsidies and significantly reducing new fossil fuel projects would demonstrate genuine leadership. However, the Albanese government has approved 37 new, expanded, or extended fossil fuel projects since coming to power, contradicting international legal opinions and undermining Australia's commitment to the Paris Agreement.