Ukraine, Russia set for new round of US-mediated talks
New trilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia and the US could begin in October, according to Kyiv and Moscow. Few expect a breakthrough, but Ukraine is seeking a partial de-escalation to help it get through the winter.
Ukraine and Russia have expressed willingness to resume trilateral talks mediated by the United States. Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Ukrainian president's office, stated preparations were underway for a potential October meeting. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov echoed this sentiment, noting that the possibility was within reason.
US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner visited Moscow and Kyiv in early September with the aim of reigniting trilateral talks. Previous attempts at these discussions, held in January and February 2026 in Abu Dhabi and Geneva, failed to yield a breakthrough due to unresolved territorial disputes in eastern Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman Peskov reiterated that President Vladimir Putin still demands more territory than Russia currently holds, a demand President Trump confirmed during the YES security conference in Kyiv on September 12.
He further stated that if Ukraine were to withdraw to Russia's proposed border, a deal could then be established. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, however, indicated that his country does not intend to comply with such a move. Instead, Ukraine is willing to freeze hostilities along the existing frontline in exchange for security assurances, a measure supported by 60% of Ukrainians according to a recent poll.
Conversely, only 33% of respondents supported giving up territory demanded by Putin. Analysts suggest that for a negotiated resolution, parity must be achieved; currently, Ukraine faces a stalemate on the ground and a significant military advantage in the air from Russia. Security expert Jonathan Powell of the UK has expressed optimism that the escalation of attacks could be a sign of Russia's willingness to negotiate, urging the West to maintain pressure on Putin to force a negotiated settlement.
However, Ukraine remains concerned about the approaching winter, with President Zelenskyy citing the destruction of critical infrastructure and economic hardships as potential obstacles to reaching a deal. Analysts believe that an agreement on grain exports, given the shared vulnerability of both nations' ports, might be the most attainable objective.
Conversely, the issue of energy truces remains contentious, with Ukraine hesitant to cease attacks on Russian energy facilities due to the risks posed during the winter months. Despite ongoing tensions, US officials are urging Ukraine to halt attacks on Russian energy infrastructure to facilitate negotiations.
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