Shocks, alchemy and John Howard’s ‘long shadow’ have shaped 21st century Australian politics

Australian politics has experienced significant changes in the 21st century, shaped by three major shocks and the leadership of seven prime ministers. These changes have been studied by political journalists George Megalogenis and Paul Strangio, who, despite focusing on different aspects, both conclude that traditional political parties have struggled to adapt to the new reality.

Megalogenis identifies the three shocks as significant demographic and external trends. Firstly, Australia is now a majority migrant and their children population. Secondly, professional women have become the largest workforce segment, surpassing blue-collar men. Lastly, both allies and key trade partners have proved unreliable. Strangio, on the other hand, emphasizes the role of prime ministers, highlighting the contrast in their leadership styles and their impact on the political landscape.

A key factor in the political volatility is the difficulty of traditional parties to adjust to these shocks. While Labor has adapted better than the Coalition parties and the crossbench, they too have not fully embraced the changing demographics. For instance, when Chinese Australians formed key voting blocs in marginal Liberal seats, Scott Morrison's rhetoric alienated them, leading to the Coalition's defeat in the 2022 election.

The book also discusses the impact of professional women on the political scene. Historically, conservative parties were more popular with women than men, but this trend reversed by the Morrison government. Many Liberal prime ministers, including Tony Abbott, Malcolm Turnbull, and Morrison, had limited experience in dealing with women.

However, Albanese's government has made significant progress, with a majority of women in the party room and key ministerial positions, reflecting differences in family backgrounds and leadership styles.