Russia’s new jet drones are better at evading Ukrainian air defenses, but experts say Moscow’s drone program is ‘critically dependent’ on Chinese components

Russian military forces have reportedly achieved a significant advancement in the development and deployment of long-range drones and cruise missiles capable of evading interception, according to reports from The Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times. These new weapons include turbojet-powered versions of the Geran drone and Banderol cruise missiles.

The original Geran drones, which are based on the slow Iranian Shahed drones, were rendered ineffective by Ukraine's ability to shoot them down. However, Russian engineers have transformed the drones by equipping them with turbojet engines, thereby increasing their speed and survivability, making them more challenging for Ukrainian defenses to intercept.

The Wall Street Journal highlights that the first-generation Geran-1, powered by a piston internal combustion engine, was capable of carrying a warhead weighing up to 20 kilograms and achieving a top speed of 185 kilometers per hour. The latest jet-powered Geran-5 variant, however, can reach speeds of up to 600 kilometers per hour and can carry a heavier warhead, weighing several dozen kilograms.

The Geran-5 now bears a closer resemblance to a missile than the original Shahed drone. The "Orion" drone, carrying a "Banderol" loitering munition, is also part of Russia's advanced drone capabilities.

These new Geran-4 and Geran-5 drones have been successfully launched against Ukrainian cities in recent weeks, demonstrating a significant improvement in evading Ukrainian air defenses compared to their predecessors. Ukraine's Air Force reported that Russia launched around 2,800 of these jet-powered drones in August alone, with launches becoming nearly continuous since August 27.

Experts suggest that the breakthrough in drone production was largely enabled by components sourced from China, in violation of international sanctions. Ukrainian experts who examined the wreckage of these weapons believe that these Chinese components, which include jet engines, onboard computers, and other electronics, played a critical role.

Analysts at DroneSec concur, stating that Russia is "critically dependent" on Chinese components for its drone program. Most of these components are commercially available dual-use items. The WSJ notes that Russia managed to upgrade earlier models, test them in combat, and begin mass production within just a couple of years.

According to sources close to the Kremlin cited by the Financial Times, Russia's drone capabilities have increased to such an extent that Iran has requested the latest Geran variants for its war against Israel and the United States. The WSJ asserts that Russia has outpaced its adversaries in this regard.

Ukrainian experts have noted that while Ukraine developed one of the first jet-powered drones two years ago, the country lacks the resources and capacity to mass-produce them. Kateryna Bondar, a senior fellow at the Wadhwani AI Center at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), points out that Russia can move quickly from ideas and experiments to mass production, a cycle that Western militaries should learn from.

The Financial Times adds that these new drones fly at speeds and altitudes that blur the line between drones and cruise missiles, and it is possible that they may soon possess stealth capabilities. Military analyst Konrad Muzyka, head of the Polish consultancy Rochan Consulting, emphasizes that while these advancements make these drones more expensive to manufacture, procure, and use, they also make them more expensive to destroy.