Repsol se frena en máximos, pero apunta a alzas del 30%

Repsol experienced a strong day in the market, but its rally has slowed as sales pressure dampened its streak of record highs. The company reached a peak of 28.92 euros on Friday, marking its best year ever with a 78.96% increase. The surge in oil prices, driven by Iran's conflict, has lifted expectations for Repsol. Analysts raised their price target for Repsol from 31 to 37.50 euros, a high among the firms that follow the company.

The analysts' optimism is based on Repsol's solid refining margins, supported by high diesel prices. However, they expect these margins to remain healthy throughout the second half due to lower production flows caused by the Iran conflict and limited refinery capacity in Russia. The analysts adjust their assumptions for refining margins and raw material prices, which boosts their forecasts for operational cash flow and supports their view of a buyback above consensus.

They estimate that the diesel refining margins will drive strong cash flow, contributing to an additional 950 million euros in share buybacks in 2026, representing an 8% return for investors. Berenberg also expects an increase in the buyback of shares in 2026, amounting to 1,800 million euros, which corresponds to 950 million additional shares and an 8% return for shareholders in 2026.

The appeal of Repsol lies not only in the rise of oil prices but also in the scarcity of capacity to convert it into fuels, according to Manuel Pinto, who leads XTB's analysis in Spain. The attacks on refineries and energy infrastructures are limiting the supply of gasoline and diesel, adding pressure to their prices. These issues are compounded by attacks by hikers on Saudi installations and threats to maritime transport.

High oil prices favor Repsol's exploration and production business, and when diesel and kerosene prices rise, it improves the margins of its refineries. Half of the investment firms advise buying Repsol's shares.